During an El Niño event, water in the central and eastern Pacific becomes substantially warmer than normal, creating a number of weather anomalies ranging from extremely wet to extremely dry conditions in some regions of the world.
Rupa Kumar Kolli, a senior WMO scientist, says climate models suggest water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are likely to exceed 2 degrees Celsius above average.
“The peak strength of this El Niño expected sometime during October 2015 to January 2016 could potentially place it among the four strongest El Niño events since 1950," he said. "The previous three events took place in 1972-73, 82-83 and 97-98.”
The 1997-98 El Niño killed an estimated 2,100 people. It caused more than $33 billion in property damage worldwide. Meteorologists warn the impact of extreme weather events emerging from the current El Niño also could be catastrophic, but say the world is better prepared to head off the worst.
Officials at the WMO, a specialized agency of the United Nations, say warm air from El Niño will result in increased precipitation over the western coast of South America and dry conditions over Australia, Indonesia and Southeast Asia. It says El Niño usually causes increased precipitation and sometimes flooding in the Horn of Africa, while southern Africa often experiences drier conditions.
El Nino normally would bring heavy winter rains to the coast of California; but, WMO scientists say they do not know why California has been suffering from a persistent drought for the past four years and they cannot be sure drought-breaking rains will come.
voanews.com
1/9/15
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